Growth and the Migration Factor

By Brigitte Granville* – Project Syndicate

Re-blogged

Wars and natural disasters have always forced people to cross political borders to seek safety and a better life. But whether they are well-received when they reach their destination depends on a confluence of political, social, economic, and geographic factors.

LONDON – Forced to choose a single factor driving the development of human societies, students of world history would be hard pressed to find a better candidate than migration. In The Unsettling of Europe, the University of Manchester historian Peter Gatrell suggests that the periods when societies have not been “unsettled” by migration are even shorter and rarer than the intervals between wars. Of course war itself…..

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*Brigitte Granville is Professor of International Economics and Economic Policy at the School of Business and Management, Queen Mary, University of London, and the author of What Ails France

Inflation will probably melt away in 2022 – central banks will do far more harm trying to tackle it

By Brigitte Granville* – The Conversation

Re-blogged

It remains to be seen whether the omicron variant will shift Sars-CoV-2 towards becoming manageably endemic. But as and when this happens, there will still be “long COVID” to contend with. The latest headlines about inflation – a 7% annual rise in the US and more tough talk from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell about bringing it down – confirm that something similar is happening with the global economy: it will be shaped by the after-effects of the pandemic even when all restrictions have been lifted.

To understand how this overhang effect may play out in 2022 requires looking back at how the pandemic has affected growth and inflation. The key lies in …….

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*Brigitte Granville is Professor of International Economics and Economic Policy at the School of Business and Management, Queen Mary, University of London, and the author of What Ails France

Bailed-out governments did not lose policy-making discretion during the Eurozone crisis

By Catherine MouryStella Ladi*, Daniel Cardoso and Angie Gago The Loop

Re-blogged

Authors argue that bailed-out governments during the Eurozone crisis exercised more leverage than assumed. Despite international market pressure and creditors’ conditionality, bailed-out governments were able to advocate, resist, shape or roll back some of the policies demanded by the EU’s Troika ……

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*Stella Ladi is a Reader at Queen Mary University of London, an Associate Professor at Panteion University in Athens and the co-author of Capitalising on constraint: Bailout politics in Eurozone countries

Ahead of the ECB: is a rise in interest rates on the horizon?

By Brigitte Granville* – The OMFIF Podcast

Re-blogged

As central banks navigate a world of inflation amid the Covid-19 recovery, the European Central Bank is at the heart of the debate. With the Bank of England signalling a rise in interest rates, will the ECB hold steady? Ellie Groves, managing director, Economic and Monetary Policy Institute, OMFIF, is joined by Brigitte Granville, economist and professor of international economics and economic policy in the School of Business and Management at Queen Mary University of London, director of the Centre for Globalisation Research and author of Remembering Inflation (Princeton University Press, 2013). They discuss the new environment central banks find themselves in, the expanding mandates of central banks with the risk of climate change and the political reality the ECB is operating in – especially as we get close to the French election.

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Link to Podcast

*Brigitte Granville is Professor of International Economics and Economic Policy at the School of Business and Management, Queen Mary, University of London, and the author of What Ails France

Behind the Modern Malaise

By Brigitte Granville* – Project Syndicate

Re-blogged

For decades, workers have been missing out on many of the gains of economic growth, and countless analyses have been published to explain why. Though the problem is fundamentally economic, it cannot be understood without also accounting for technology, politics, and culture.

LONDON – In describing recent economic history as “the inglorious years,” French economist Daniel Cohen’s title refers primarily to a problem that is also examined in the economist Jan Eeckhout’s book, The Profit Paradox. That problem, as Eeckhout puts it, is “wage stagnation and extreme wage inequality.” Over the past half-century, the situation for workers in most rich countries has deteriorated on average, setting this era apart from the 30 glorious years (les trente glorieuses) after World War II, when West Europeans, Canadians, and Americans enjoyed a near-miraculous period of sustained growth, including broad-based growth in real wages and higher living standards.

What can these authors add to the mountain of analyses churned out in recent years……

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*Brigitte Granville is Professor of International Economics and Economic Policy at the School of Business and Management, Queen Mary, University of London, and the author of What Ails France

How Germany flattened the curve

By Georg von Graevenitz
Re-blogged

CORE links modern economic methods to pressing policy challenges: mounting inequalities, climate change, concerns about power in the workplace, and financial instability. COVID-19 has highlighted inequalities in new ways, demonstrated the risks of ignoring pollution linked to climate change and underscored the role of governments in stabilising economies, coordinating responses and preparing for adversity. The pandemic also highlighted the role of science and trust in protecting society against adversity. Differences in preparedness, often the result of many years of incremental policy developments, have been particularly significant in this fast moving crisis. This post describes how scientists, preparedness and luck combined to simplify crisis management in Germany. But neglect of the exploitation of workers in the meat-processing industry has created unexpected external effects as new lockdowns are now being declared.

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Brown Bag Seminar | Social protection and child poverty risk: does persistence matter?

Next Wednesday 16th of May, Dr Elena Bárcena Martín will be presenting her research. Dr  Elena Bárcena Martín works at the University of Malaga as an Associate Professor of Statistic and Econometrics. She has been research visitor at Columbia University and LSE where she studied the Master of Science in Econometrics and Mathematical Economics.

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyse to what extent the previous status of children in poverty affects current child poverty, even when we control for observed and unobserved individual heterogeneity and treat the initial condition problem. On the basis of Wooldridge’s (2005) methodology, we estimate a dynamic random effects probit model considering three levels due to the hierarchical structure of our data: observations for each year (level 1) of the children (level 2) nested into countries (level 3). We corroborate the relevance of lagged status in poverty and assess the role of context variables in explaining differences across countries in child poverty dynamics. In particular, we highlight the significance of family benefits in reducing child poverty and assess which features of these benefits are more effective to reduce child poverty. This way, some key insights are provided to design more effective public policies to alleviate child poverty.

Email: barcenae@uma.es

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Making bad economies: The poverty of Mexican drug cartels

By Roxana Gutiérrez-Romero
Re-blogged

Some stories say that local economies benefit from cartels in Mexico. But research suggests that the areas most plagued by drug-related violence have seriously suffered economically. 

Mexico is facing one of the most violent episodes in its recent history. The country has had over 200,000 drug-related killings since 2006. Last year alone, 29,168 homicides were recorded, reaching the highest homicide rate over the last 20 years, surpassing the previous historical peak in 2011 when drug cartel violence accounted for nearly half of all national homicides.

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CGR in the news | Professor Granville interviewed by The New York Times

As Brexit Looms, Paris Tries a Business Makeover
By David Segal / 10 Dec 2017 / New York Times

(…) “When you grow up in France, none of the heroes you learn about are entrepreneurs,” said Brigitte Granville, a professor of economics at Queen Mary University of London, who was raised in France. “When someone gets rich in France, people immediately ask, ‘What did he do to make this money? He must be a nasty person.’” (…)

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Report on the Annual Globalisation Seminar and Workshop in Political Economy and Economic Policy

By Beatriz Rodriguez-Satizabal

Last Thursday saw the annual edition of the Workshop in Political Economy and Economic Policy and the Globalisation Seminar Series organised by Dr. Caterina Gennaioli. Along with the Brown Bag Seminars and the Workshop on the Theory and Empirics of Poverty, Inequality and Mobility, the annual seminar and workshop constitutes the CGR’s main effort in further the research on economic and political global concerns. The Centre seeks to offer a platform to prominent academics and policy-makers to discuss the latest debates on global issues such as immigration and social mobility. This year the seminar was co-sponsored by the Royal Economic Society.

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